Brazilian Série A (Brasileirão) 2016

The English Premier League has just begun, but we can test our model in a championship with many rounds already played. Here is the data for the current Brazilian Série A.

Palmeiras is by far the favorite for winning the Brasileirão 2016, and only Santos and Grêmio have real chances of claiming the title (but we can still expect some surprises by Atlético-MG, Corinthians, and Flamengo). América-MG is almost relegated and there are few hopes for Santa Cruz, but all teams from Chapecoense to the bottom of the table should pay attention -- including Internacional, which for some rounds was a likely candidate for the title (but now has less than 1 chance in 250 of winning).

The columns are:

• w, d, and l are, as expected, the number of matches for each team ending in a win, a draw or a loss; pld is the total number of matches played and pts the current number of points
• gf and ga are, respectively, the number of goals scored ('Goal For') and goals suffered ('Goal Against), with gd the goal difference (gf-ga)
• Champion is the current probably for the team to win the English Premier League, given the current situation and historical performance both of the team itself and of teams in its current position
• Libertadores Group is the current probability for the team to finish among the three best teams, qualifying for the group stage of the Libertadores
• Libertadores First is the current probability for the team to finish in the fourth position, qualifying for the first stage of the Libertadores
• Rel is the current probability for the team to finish among the three worse teams, being relegated

Team	w	d	l	pld	pts	gf	ga	gd	Champion	Libertadores Group	Libertadores First	Relegation
Palmeiras	12	3	5	20	39	36	20	16	43.6 %	79.7 %	9.8 %	0.0 %
Santos	11	3	6	20	36	35	17	18	14.2 %	50.6 %	15.0 %	0.0 %
Grêmio	10	5	4	19	35	29	19	10	16.1 %	53.5 %	14.2 %	0.0 %
Atlético-MG	10	5	5	20	35	33	28	5	10.2 %	42.5 %	16.0 %	0.0 %
Corinthians	10	4	6	20	34	28	18	10	8.4 %	33.3 %	17.1 %	0.0 %
Flamengo	10	4	6	20	34	23	20	3	6.7 %	29.2 %	13.9 %	0.0 %
Atlético-PR	9	3	8	20	30	20	19	1	0.4 %	5.5 %	6.4 %	0.1 %
Ponte Preta	9	3	8	20	30	25	31	-6	0.1 %	2.3 %	2.9 %	0.4 %
Fluminense	7	7	5	19	28	21	18	3	0.2 %	2.8 %	3.4 %	0.6 %
Sport Recife	7	5	8	20	26	30	29	1	0.0 %	0.2 %	0.4 %	6.4 %
São Paulo	7	5	8	20	26	21	21	0	0.0 %	0.3 %	0.6 %	4.1 %
Chapecoense	5	9	5	19	24	27	33	-6	0.0 %	0.1 %	0.0 %	20.9 %
Botafogo	6	5	8	19	23	24	29	-5	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.3 %	15.3 %
Vitória	5	8	7	20	23	26	30	-4	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	33.6 %
Internacional	6	4	9	19	22	21	23	-2	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.2 %	17.0 %
Coritiba	5	7	8	20	22	23	28	-5	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	44.2 %
Figueirense	4	9	6	19	21	16	22	-6	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	42.1 %
Cruzeiro	5	5	10	20	20	26	34	-8	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	45.7 %
Santa Cruz	5	4	11	20	19	22	28	-6	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	72.9 %
América-MG	3	4	13	20	13	12	31	-19	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	96.6 %

English Premier League 16/17

These are the probabilities for the English Premier League 16/17 after the first round (missing Chelsea vs. West Ham United).

There is not much to analyze yet, as there is only one round to modify the probabilities drawn from past results and bookmakers. Still, the current simulation is useful for the future analysis of the moving probabilities for the teams final positions, and, in particular, for checking the likelihood of new underdogs -- or, how likely is a new Leicester City? The model is showing that the probability for Leicester City repeating the last year position has not decreased significantly, but the Hull City has already decreased the probability of relegation -- way to go, Tigers! The more likely candidates for relegation are now Burnley, Sunderland and Bournemouth -- but these probabilities, as described, are still under the hevay influence of bookmakers' odds and past performances, whose importance for the model will decrease when it has more actual results to work with.

The columns are:

• w, d, and l are, as expected, the number of matches for each team ending in a win, a draw or a loss; pld is the total number of matches played and pts the current number of points
• gf and ga are, respectively, the number of goals scored ('Goal For') and goals suffered ('Goal Against), with gd the goal difference (gf-ga)
• Champion is the current probably for the team to win the English Premier League, given the current situation and historical performance both of the team itself and of teams in its current position
• CL Groups is the current probability for the team to finish among the three best teams, qualifying for the group stage of the Champions League
• CL Playoffs is the current probability for the team to finish in the fourth position, qualifying for the playoff stage of the Champions League
• EL is the current probability for the team to finish in the fifth position, qualifying for the Europa League
• Rel is the current probability for the team to finish among the three worse teams, being relegated

Team	w	d	l	pld	pts	gf	ga	gd	Champion	CL Groups	CL Playoffs	EL	Rel
Manchester United	1	0	0	1	3	3	1	2	21.9 %	53.0 %	11.0 %	9.6 %	0.4 %
Liverpool FC	1	0	0	1	3	4	3	1	18.2 %	45.5 %	9.4 %	8.5 %	0.6 %
Manchester City	1	0	0	1	3	2	1	1	21.8 %	54.5 %	10.9 %	8.5 %	0.2 %
Hull City	1	0	0	1	3	2	1	1	0.3 %	2.0 %	1.9 %	2.1 %	21.3 %
Swansea City	1	0	0	1	3	1	0	1	0.5 %	2.8 %	3.0 %	2.8 %	18.4 %
West Bromwich Albion	1	0	0	1	3	1	0	1	0.4 %	2.3 %	1.4 %	2.2 %	21.5 %
Middlesbrough FC	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.2 %	1.4 %	1.2 %	1.9 %	28.9 %
Tottenham Hotspur	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	7.0 %	25.8 %	9.0 %	9.2 %	1.6 %
Stoke City	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.3 %	2.5 %	2.4 %	2.4 %	17.9 %
Watford FC	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.3 %	1.9 %	1.6 %	1.7 %	26.6 %
Southampton FC	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1.7 %	8.5 %	4.2 %	5.4 %	6.7 %
Everton FC	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	2.5 %	11.3 %	5.6 %	7.2 %	5.1 %
West Ham United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.1 %	12.9 %	6.7 %	7.0 %	4.5 %
Chelsea FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12.5 %	37.1 %	10.8 %	9.6 %	1.2 %
Arsenal FC	0	0	1	1	0	3	4	-1	7.3 %	26.8 %	12.1 %	8.8 %	1.4 %
Sunderland AFC	0	0	1	1	0	1	2	-1	0.0 %	0.6 %	1.2 %	1.5 %	35.3 %
Leicester City	0	0	1	1	0	1	2	-1	1.7 %	8.2 %	4.8 %	7.2 %	6.4 %
Burnley FC	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0.1 %	0.8 %	0.6 %	1.3 %	38.2 %
Crystal Palace	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0.1 %	1.0 %	1.1 %	1.4 %	31.2 %
AFC Bournemouth	0	0	1	1	0	1	3	-2	0.2 %	1.0 %	1.0 %	1.4 %	32.7 %