Brazilian Série A (Brasileirão) 2016

The English Premier League has just begun, but we can test our model in a championship with many rounds already played. Here is the data for the current Brazilian Série A.

Palmeiras is by far the favorite for winning the Brasileirão 2016, and only Santos and Grêmio have real chances of claiming the title (but we can still expect some surprises by Atlético-MG, Corinthians, and Flamengo). América-MG is almost relegated and there are few hopes for Santa Cruz, but all teams from Chapecoense to the bottom of the table should pay attention -- including Internacional, which for some rounds was a likely candidate for the title (but now has less than 1 chance in 250 of winning).

The columns are:

• w, d, and l are, as expected, the number of matches for each team ending in a win, a draw or a loss; pld is the total number of matches played and pts the current number of points
• gf and ga are, respectively, the number of goals scored ('Goal For') and goals suffered ('Goal Against), with gd the goal difference (gf-ga)
• Champion is the current probably for the team to win the English Premier League, given the current situation and historical performance both of the team itself and of teams in its current position
• Libertadores Group is the current probability for the team to finish among the three best teams, qualifying for the group stage of the Libertadores
• Libertadores First is the current probability for the team to finish in the fourth position, qualifying for the first stage of the Libertadores
• Rel is the current probability for the team to finish among the three worse teams, being relegated

Team	w	d	l	pld	pts	gf	ga	gd	Champion	Libertadores Group	Libertadores First	Relegation
Palmeiras	12	3	5	20	39	36	20	16	43.6 %	79.7 %	9.8 %	0.0 %
Santos	11	3	6	20	36	35	17	18	14.2 %	50.6 %	15.0 %	0.0 %
Grêmio	10	5	4	19	35	29	19	10	16.1 %	53.5 %	14.2 %	0.0 %
Atlético-MG	10	5	5	20	35	33	28	5	10.2 %	42.5 %	16.0 %	0.0 %
Corinthians	10	4	6	20	34	28	18	10	8.4 %	33.3 %	17.1 %	0.0 %
Flamengo	10	4	6	20	34	23	20	3	6.7 %	29.2 %	13.9 %	0.0 %
Atlético-PR	9	3	8	20	30	20	19	1	0.4 %	5.5 %	6.4 %	0.1 %
Ponte Preta	9	3	8	20	30	25	31	-6	0.1 %	2.3 %	2.9 %	0.4 %
Fluminense	7	7	5	19	28	21	18	3	0.2 %	2.8 %	3.4 %	0.6 %
Sport Recife	7	5	8	20	26	30	29	1	0.0 %	0.2 %	0.4 %	6.4 %
São Paulo	7	5	8	20	26	21	21	0	0.0 %	0.3 %	0.6 %	4.1 %
Chapecoense	5	9	5	19	24	27	33	-6	0.0 %	0.1 %	0.0 %	20.9 %
Botafogo	6	5	8	19	23	24	29	-5	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.3 %	15.3 %
Vitória	5	8	7	20	23	26	30	-4	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	33.6 %
Internacional	6	4	9	19	22	21	23	-2	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.2 %	17.0 %
Coritiba	5	7	8	20	22	23	28	-5	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	44.2 %
Figueirense	4	9	6	19	21	16	22	-6	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	42.1 %
Cruzeiro	5	5	10	20	20	26	34	-8	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	45.7 %
Santa Cruz	5	4	11	20	19	22	28	-6	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	72.9 %
América-MG	3	4	13	20	13	12	31	-19	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	96.6 %